KfW succession barometer: a structural shift in the Mittelstand

The latest data from the KfW succession barometer highlights a structural shift in the German SME landscape: by 2029, up to 114,000 SMEs per year may shut down — not because of weak performance, but due to a lack of succession.

Only around 109,000 businesses per year plan a handover.

• 57% of SME owners are aged 55 or older.
• 47% cite the absence of suitable successors as the main obstacle.
• 42% point to complexity in the succession process.

Notably, for the first time, a majority of owners plan to close their business rather than continue it upon exit.

From our perspective, this reveals a critical market friction:

• There is no shortage of capable next-generation leaders interested in running profitable, established businesses,
• but they often struggle to identify suitable acquisition targets,
• or lack the know-how and capital structure required to execute such a purchase.

This is exactly where our model comes in. Cornus Holding:

• systematically sources succession-driven acquisition opportunities,
• matches them with external management talent,
• structures financing, transition and governance,
• invests selectively in businesses with strong fundamentals at disciplined entry multiples.

The data makes one thing clear: SME succession is no longer a niche issue. It is a structural private-markets opportunity.